Kobe Bryant: Easy Choice for MVP…Or Not?

Okay, let me start by saying this: As much as I hate to say this and it’s going to pain me that I am even typing this, but Kobe Bryant is still probably the best player in the game today. There, I said it. Now, can we move on please?

Kobe was a monster in the playoffs but not so much in the NBA Finals. You say, but A-Ro, Kobe averaged 28.6 points per game, the tops of anyone in the Finals. I say he also only shot 40.5% and 27% in the fourth quarters. But A-Ro, he had a monster game five, where he scored 38 and carried the Lakers on his back. I say he didn’t involve his teammates at all, thus why they seemed to give up and not play defense. You say, but A-Ro, he is the best player on the team that won! I say, so what, he wasn’t the best player on his team for those seven games. But, A-Ro, if not Kobe, then who? I say Pau Gasol.

Let’s get this out of the way as well. Just because someone scores the most points in a game or in a seven game series, does NOT mean he is the best player. If shots were distributed equally, then you can justify that argument. I am about to show you some different types of statistics that will help back my reasoning why Gasol should have been MVP and not Bryant.

First, here are the normal statistical measurements that normal people will judge a player by:

Kobe: 28.6 points, 8 rebounds (1.7 off), 3.9 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.9 turnovers
Gasol: 18.6 points, 11.6 rebounds (5 off), 3.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.6 blocks, 1.9 turnovers

Kobe in wins: 27 ppg, 10 rbg (2.5 off), 3.8 apg, 2 spg, 1 bpg, 2.8 to
Gasol in wins: 18 ppg, 13.8 rbg (6 off), 5 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.5 bpg, 1.8 to

Kobe in losses: 30.7 ppg, 5.3 rbg (.7 off), 4 apg, 2.3 spg, .3 bpg, 5.3 to
Gasol in losses: 19.3 ppg, 8.7 rbg (3.7 off), 2 apg, 1 spg, 2.7 bpg, 2 to

Kobe did average ten more points per game, he also attempted 23.3 shots per game compared to Gasol’s 12.9. You will notice Gasol averaged five offensive boards per game which led to five more possessions for the Lakers and turned the ball over two less times per game as well. While Kobe scored more in his losses, he also committed almost three more turnovers per game and was held off the glass. Gasol averaged 5 less rebounds per win and 3 less assists. Okay, so I already know what you’re thinking, how does this prove anything for Gasol? Let’s get into some details.

Thanks to John Hollinger we can calculate a game score for each player. I’ll let you read on your own what it’s all about, but basically it determines how well a player performed for an individual game. For example, a score of 40 would be outstanding, while a score of 10 would just be average.

Kobe’s game score for all seven games: 130.7 = 18.67 per game
Gasol’s game score for all seven games: 130.1 = 18.59 per game

Right from the start, you can tell that the differential is not very much. What about in the games won and lost?

Kobe: 18.93 per win; 18.33 per loss
Gasol: 19.10 per win; 17.9 per loss

Not much difference, but you will notice Gasol did have a better game score in the games won and a worse score in the games the Lakers lost. Two other methods to compare players that Hollinger uses are a True Shot % and Effective Field Goal %. These two statistical measures are able to compare a big man to a guard. The True Shot % takes into account, field goals, three pointers, and free throws while the Effective Field Goal % adjusts for the fact that three pointers are worth one more point.

Kobe TS%: Total: 52.8%, Wins: 49.5%, Losses: 58.4%
Gasol TS%: Total: 55.6%, Wins: 52.8%, Losses: 61.6%

Kobe eFG%: Total: 45.1%, Wins: 39.7%, Losses: 53.2%
Gasol eFG%: Total: 47.8%, Wins: 45.8%, Losses: 52.6%

Remember when I said if each player got the same number of shots? Well, Gasol would have had better averages either way. A little known fact also from the NBA Finals is that in the four Lakers wins, Kobe was 3-19 from the three point line. Theoretically, Kobe was hurting his team by missing more shots in the games they won than the ones they lost.

The last two measures to judge a player are Win Shares and Player Rating (both offensive and defensive). While I don’t have the Win Shares for the only the Finals game, I will point out that Kobe’s Win Shares during the playoffs was 2.7 offensive and 0.9 defensive compared to Gasol’s Win Shares of 3.2 and 1.1. What about Player Rating? Player Rating was developed by Dean Oliver in his Basketball on Paper book. Basically, it shows how many points a team would score or allow when the individual player was on the court per 100 possessions.

Kobe O-Rating: 108 (Lakers would have scored 108 points if they would have had 100 possessions with Kobe on the floor.
Kobe D-Rating: 98.4

Gasol O-Rating: 122
Gasol D-Rating: 100

As you can see, the Lakers would have scored 14 more points per 100 possessions when Gasol was on the floor and only allowed 1.6 more points. Now, look at this split during games won and games lost.

Kobe O-Rating in wins: 109
Kobe O-Rating in losses: 106
Kobe D-Rating in wins: 90.8
Kobe D-Rating in losses: 109

Gasol O-Rating in wins: 118
Gasol O-Rating in losses: 127
Gasol D-Rating in wins: 92.8
Gasol D-Rating in losses: 111

While Kobe averaged 30.7 points per game in the games the Lakers lost, his offensive rating in those games (106) was less than his defensive rating (109), basically saying that for every 100 possessions the Lakers would have been down three points with Kobe on the floor. Now, when you look at Gasol’s split, it was 127 offensive rating and 111 defensive rating. So, in the losses, the Lakers actually would have scored 16 more points per 100 possessions with Gasol on the floor! The last little tidbit I would like to add is the plus/minus formula, which shows how a team did with a player on the floor. Gasol had a score of +40 in the four wins, while Kobe only had a +31.

Obviously most times the media and everyone else just takes the ‘best player on the best team’ to win the MVP. But, for this series, if you look at the APBRmetrics (aka the ‘new statistics’) you will see that Kobe was not on the best player and it was in fact Gasol. At the very least you should recognize that Kobe was NOT the run-a-way MVP that you once thought he was.